Prosper Insights & Analytics: U.S. Consumer Shows Resilience Even as Iran-Driven Gas Price Shock Continues

Confidence and mood improved from April, while forward spending plans remained above year-ago levels despite sustained fuel pressure

WORTHINGTON, OH, UNITED STATES, May 13, 2026 /⁨EINPresswire.com⁩/ – Prosper Insights & Analytics’ latest proprietary consumer survey data show that even with gas prices remaining elevated in the wake of the Iran war, the U.S. consumer has not shut down. Prosper’s trend data indicate that after the sharp deterioration seen immediately following the March shock and the broader pullback in April, consumers in May began to show signs of stabilization.

The key point for investors, economists, and brand leaders is that consumer confidence and consumer mood both improved from April to May, even as gas-price pressure remained high. Consumer confidence rose to 39.9% in May from 38.4% in April, while the Consumer Mood Index edged up to 99.0 from 98.5. At the same time, Prosper’s 90-day Consumer Spending Forecast held at a level 3.1% above April 2025, indicating that consumers are still planning to spend even in a more pressured environment.

Prosper’s data show the sequence clearly. In March 2026, soon after the Iran war began, confidence stood at 42.2%, mood at 99.7, and the 90-day spending forecast at 84.96. In April, as the gas-price shock spread more fully into daily life, confidence fell to 38.4%, mood dropped to 98.5, and the spending forecast moved down to 83.18. By May, however, confidence had rebounded to 39.9%, mood had improved to 99.0, and spending expectations, while still under March levels, remained constructive and well above year-ago April readings. The overall pattern suggests that the April downturn reflected a meaningful adjustment period, but not the start of a broad consumer collapse.

Gas prices remain a central factor in the consumer equation. Prosper’s Gas Prices Impacting Purchases measure rose from 63.9 in March to 71.1 in April and 71.8 in May, indicating that fuel costs continue to shape household decisions. Yet the May data also suggest that consumers are beginning to absorb the shock rather than retreat further. This is a critical distinction: consumers are not behaving as though the pressure disappeared, but they are beginning to adapt to it.

“Prosper’s predictive signals show that the consumer took a real hit in April as higher gas prices worked their way into household budgets, but May suggests the consumer is stabilizing rather than spiraling,” said Phil Rist, EVP Strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics. “Confidence is up, mood is up, and spending plans remain ahead of last year even with gas prices still elevated. That tells us consumers are adjusting, becoming more selective, and continuing to spend where the value proposition is clear.”

For Wall Street and corporate leadership teams, Prosper’s data point to a more nuanced consumer story than a simple demand breakdown. The May numbers suggest that consumers remain under pressure, but they are still engaged — especially in categories and channels that deliver a strong mix of value, utility, and convenience. In Prosper’s view, that means the story is less about broad-based consumer weakness and more about where spending is being redirected as households adapt to a higher gas environment.

To learn more about Prosper’s macro forecast signals, send an email to info@goProsper.com

About Prosper Insights & Analytics: Prosper Insights & Analytics is a consumer intelligence and predictive analytics firm specializing in forward-looking consumer data. Prosper conducts one of the nation’s largest continuous consumer surveys, sampling 7,500 – 8,000 U.S. adults each month to measure economic confidence, spending behavior, purchase intent, and consumer psychology. The dataset spans 23 years and supports retail, financial services, investment, and macroeconomic research. Prosper applies statistical, machine-learning, and causal methods to forecast consumer behavior and economic trends ahead of traditional data releases. Prosper’s proprietary consumer data and predictive models are used by marketers, retailers, financial institutions, and investors to forecast consumer demand, public-company revenues, and key macroeconomic indicators. Learn more at ProsperInsights.com

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